Monday, October 5, 2020

11460 IS THE HURDLE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11220

 

11460 IS THE HURDLE; TRAIL STOP-LOSS TO 11220

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices fell 0.5%-2.2% on Friday on the back of President Trump testing positive for coronavirus and lackluster employment report. Indices however clawed back some of the losses after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi signaled aid for the airline industry could be coming soon, perhaps even as part of a much-anticipated broad relief bill.

 

US non-farm payrolls increased by 661,000 jobs last month, lower than the expected figure of 8,00,000 and after advancing 1.49 million in August.

 

The House passed the $2.2 trillion Democratic coronavirus stimulus bill Thursday night, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has offered a $1.6 trillion package.

 

Brent crude fell $1.12, or 2.7%, to $39.81 a barrel while WTI settled $1.67, or 4.3%, lower at $37.05 per barrel.

 

In Europe, FTSE rose 0.4%, DAX fell 0.3% while CAC ended flat.

 

For the week, Dow climbed 1.9% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose 1.5% each. European markets gained 1%-2%. In Asia, Nifty and Hang Seng rose 3.3% and 1% respectively, Shanghai was flat while Nikkei fell 0.8%. WTI crude plunged 7.6%, extending the losing streak to second straight week.  Gold rose 2.2% to $1905 per ounce.

 

AT HOME

 

Sensex and Nifty climbed 1.6% and 1.5% respectively to close at the highest level in nearly two-weeks. Sensex settled at 38697, up 629 points while Nifty rose 169 points to finish at 11416. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices rose 0.7% each. Except 0.3% and 0.2% lower Energy and Consumer Durables indices respectively, all the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Bankex and Finance indices leading the tally, up 3.7% and 3% respectively.

 

FIIs net bought stocks and index futures worth Rs 1632 cr and 1476 cr respectively but net sold stock futures worth Rs 15 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 259 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 62 paise to end at 73.14/$.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty climbed 3.5% and 3.3% respectively, registering the best weekly gain in four months.

 

September GST collections stood at Rs 95480 cr Vs Rs 86449 cr in the previous month.

 

Hero Motocorp September sales rose 17% y-o-y to 7.16 kh units. Tata Motors sold 37% more at 44444 units. TVS Motor's sales rose 4% to 3.27 lk units. Royal Enfield sales rose 1% to 60041 units.  Maruti Suzuki reported 30.8% y-o-y rise in September sales at 1.6 lk units. Bajaj Auto sales rose 10% to 4.41 lk units. M & M tractor sales rose 17% to 43386 units while auto sales were down 17% at 35920 units. Eicher Motor VECV sales fell 7.3% to 3506 units.

 

Government, on Friday, in an affidavit filed in the Supreme Court, supported waiving compound interest or ‘interest on interest’ for small ticket loans up to Rs 2 crore.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Yesterday, doctors treating Trump said that they had begun treating him with dexamethasone, a steroid recommended for severe cases of Covid-19. Still, his physician, said that his condition has improved and may be discharged as soon as Monday.

 

Markets in China are closed today for a holiday. US futures are up around three tenth of a percent. Nikkei and Hang Seng are up 1.2% each. SGX Nifty is trading around 11400, suggesting around 30 points lower start when compared to Thursday's close of Nifty futures.

 

Readers would recall that we had initiated positive view on Nifty after 11225 hurdle was taken out. In Friday's report we had said that 11470, where a downward sloping trendline adjoining tops made in August and September was placed, would be the next target to eye.

 

Nifty touched a high of 11428 before closing at 11416 and is set to open below 11400 today.

 

Downward sloping trendline adjoining tops made on 31st August and 16th September, which also coincides with the 67% retracement level of the 11794-10790 fall, is placed around 11460, continues to be upside target/resistance to eye. If this hurdle is taken out, 11618, the top made in September, would be the next target. 

 

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 11220, with the stop-loss of which, trading longs can be held on to.

 

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