17205 IS NEXT SUPPORT; 17500 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

17205 IS NEXT SUPPORT; 17500 IMMEDIATE HURDLE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

US indices fell 0.1%-0.7%.

 

The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national home price index increased 5.8% y-o-y in December, the smallest annual gain since August 2020, and followed a 7.6% rise in November. Chicago PMI slid to 43.6 in February, weaker than expected, after falling to 44.3 in January. U.S. consumer confidence also fell this month to 102.9, down from a revised 106 reading last month.

 

US 10-year treasury yield rose 1 bps to 3.924%. Dollar index rose 0.3% to 104.95. Gold rose 0.6% to $1827 per ounce.

 

Brent crude May contract rose 1.7% to $83.45 and WTI crude futures gained 1.8% to $77.05 a barrel.

 

European markets fell 0.1%-0.7%. Inflation figures from France and Spain came in hotter than expected for February.

 

For the month, Dow tumbled 4% while S & P 500 and Nasdaq fell 2.5% and 1% respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield has advanced more than 50 bps for the month, and the 2-year yield has gained more than 70 bps. Dollar index rose 2.4% for its first monthly increase since September. For the month of February, Brent fell 0.7% while WTI dropped 2.5%.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices fell half a percent each, extending the losing streak to eighth straight session and closing at the lowest level after mid-October of 2022. Sensex settled at 58962, down 326 points while Nifty lost 88 points to finish at 17304. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices however gained 0.7% and 0.4% respectively. Nifty Media index surged 2.5%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.1% higher Realty index. Oil & Gas and Pharma indices were the top losers, down 1.3% each.

 

FIIs net sold stocks and index futures worth Rs 4559 cr and 1358 cr respectively but net bought stock futures worth Rs 1069 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 4610 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 17 paise to end at 82.67/$.

 

For the month, Sensex and Nifty fell 1% and 2% respectively, extending the losing streak to third consecutive month.

 

India's Q3 GDP growth came in at 4.4%, down from 6.3% in previous quarter, weighed down by base normalization and weakness in consumption. FY22 growth rate was revised upwards to 9.1% from 8.7%.

 

Growth in eight core infra industries rose to a 4-month high of 7.8% y-o-y in January compared with 7% in December.

 

Fiscal deficit hit 67.8% of FY23 Revised Estimate at Rs. 11.90 lk cr, in 10-months of thi fiscal.

 

OUTLOOK

 

China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 in February, the highest since April 2012.

 

Today morning, Hang Seng and Shanghai are up 1.8% and 0.25% respectively while Nikkei is off 0.1%. SGX Nifty is suggesting around 30 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday's report we had said that 17205, the 78.6% retracement level of the 16747-18887 upmove, was the next downside level to eye while 17600-17650 was the immediate resistance zone, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

 

Nifty, after touching a high of 17440 in the initial trade, plunged all the way to 17255 before closing at 17304.

 

17205, the 78.6% retracement level of the 16747-18887 upmove, continues to be next downside level to eye. If this support gives way, 17050, around which a downward sloping trendline adjoining bottoms made since 22nd November 2022 is placed, would be next support; Immediate hurdle on the hourly chart has moved lower to 17500, with the stop-loss of which, trading shorts can be held on to.

 

For Banknifty, 39600-39420 is the support area; 40500-40600 is the immediate resistance zone, upon crossover of which, 41000 and 41400 would be next upside targets.