19296-19650 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE RANGE

 

19296-19650 CONTINUES TO BE IMMEDIATE RANGE

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

After climbing more than a percent in the initial trade on the back of soft inflation data, U.S. indices gave away most of the gains through the session to end just marginally higher.

 

July CPI rose 3.2% on an annual basis, less than the 3.3% consensus. On a month-to-month basis, inflation increased 0.2%, in-line with estimates. Core inflation rate — which strips out prices of food of energy — was at 4.7%, the lowest since October 2021 and lower than the 4.8% expected.  Weekly jobless claims increased 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 248,000, higher than the forecast of 230,000.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield, after starting at 3.957%, rebounded to 4.109%, up 10 bps compared to previous close. Dollar index inched up 0.1% to 102.62. Gold fell 0.2% to $1912 per ounce.

 

Brent crude fell 1.3% to $86.40 a barrel while WTI settled down 1.9% at $82.82.

 

European markets rose 0.4%-1.5%.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices ended lower by half a percent after a choppy session. Sensex settled at 65688, down 307 points while Nifty lost 89 points to finish at 19543. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices fell 0.1% and 0.5% respectively, snapping a 5-day winning streak. Nifty FMCG index was the top loser among the sectoral indices, down 0.9%, followed by 0.8% lower Healthcare, Bank and Financial Services indices. Media index surged 6.6%, becoming top gainer, followed by 0.7% higher Metal index.

 

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 331 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 1162 cr and 5066 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 704 cr.

 

Rupee appreciated 10 paise to end at 82.71/$.

 

Monetary Policy Committee held Repo rate steady and also maintained the "withdrawal of accommodation" stance as was widely expected. RBI, while retained FY24 GDP growth guidance at 6.5%, raise CPI forecast to 5.4% from 5.1% earlier. To absorb the surplus liquidity, RBI announced that all scheduled banks will have to maintain a 10% incremental CRR from August 12 on the increase in the net demand and time liabilities between May 19 and July 28, 2023.

 

Hero Motocorp reported operationally strong Q1 numbers. Margins expanded for the fourth consecutive quarter, rising 260 bps y-o-y.

 

OUTLOOK

 

Today morning, Nikkei is up 0.8% but Shanghai and Hang Seng are down 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. GIFT Nifty is suggesting around 45 points lower start for our market.

 

In yesterday’s report we had said that 19650 continued to be immediate hurdle while 19296, the low made last week, continued to be immediate support.

 

Nifty fell to 19495 before closing at 19543. The benchmark is set to open near 19500 today.

 

19650 continues to be immediate hurdle, a crossover of which is required for a fresh upmove; 19296, the low made last week, continues to be immediate support.

 

For Banknifty, 45300 continues to be immediate hurdle; 44279, the low made last week, continues to be immediate support, upon breach of which, 44000, the 78.6% retracement level of the 43345-46370 upmove seen since 20th June, would be next downside level to eye.

 

ONGC and Apollo Hospitals will report their quarterly earnings today.

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