19550-19500 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT AREA; 19800 IS NEXT UPSIDE TARGET

 

19550-19500 IS THE IMMEDIATE SUPPORT AREA; 19800 IS NEXT UPSIDE TARGET

 

WORLD MARKETS

 

On Friday, after starting lower on the back of stronger-than-expected jobs data, U.S. indices surged to end with gains of 0.9%-1.6%.

 

The U.S. economy added 336,000 jobs in September, easily beating expected addition of 170,000 jobs. However, wages growth, at 0.2%, was less than expected and unemployment rate was 3.8%, marginally higher than forecast. The numbers for August were revised higher to show 227,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 187,000.

 

U.S. 10-year treasury yield, after hitting a high of 4.887%, eased to end 8 bps higher at 4.805%. Dollar index fell 0.2% to 106.10. Gold gained 0.7% to $1833 per ounce.

 

Brent futures settled up 51 cents at $84.58 per barrel and WTI crude futures rose 48 cents to $82.79.

 

European markets gained 0.6%-1.2%.

 

For the week, Dow fell 0.3%, extending the losing streak to third straight week. but S & P 500 rose half a percent, snapping a 4-week losing streak and Nasdaq climbed 1.6%, extending previous week's marginal gains. European markets fell 1%-1.5%. In Asia, Nikkei and Hang Seng fell 2.7% and 1.8% respectively while Nifty inched up 0.1%.

 

Dollar index fell 0.1%, snapping an 11-week win streak.  Oil prices posted their steepest weekly losses since March on worries that persistently high interest rates will slow global growth and hammer fuel demand, even if supplies are depressed by Saudi Arabia and Russia, who said they will continue supply cuts to year end. For the week, Brent plunged 11% and WTI nosedived over 8%.

 

AT HOME

 

Benchmark indices gained six tenth of a percent on Friday, matching Thursday's gains. Sensex settled at 65995, up 364 points while Nifty added 107 points to finish at 19653. Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Except 0.02% lower Media index, all the NSE sectoral indices ended higher, with Realty index on the top, up 3.1%, followed by 1% higher Financial Services index.

 

FIIs net sold stocks worth Rs 90 cr but net bought index futures and stock futures worth Rs 404 cr and 1140 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 783 cr.

 

Rupee ended unchanged at 83.2450/$.

 

RBI Monetary Policy Committee kept repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and maintained "withdrawal of accommodation" stance as was widely expected. FY-24 GDP grown and CPI forecasts were also kept unchanged at 6.5% and 5.4% respectively. Bond yields however shot up after RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said they may consider OMO sales to manage liquidity.

 

For the week, Sensex and Nifty inched up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, snapping a 2-week losing streak.

 

OUTLOOK

 

U.S. futures are down 0.6%-0.7% and oil prices have jumped more than 4% after the Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalated to full-blown war on Saturday. Japan and South Korea’s markets are closed today for a holiday while Hang Kong has cancelled morning session. Shanghai is down 0.8% and GIFT Nifty is suggesting a modestly lower start for our market.

 

In Friday's report we had said that 34-DMA, placed around 19620, continued to be immediate hurdle, upon crossover of which, 20-DMA, placed around 19780, would be next upside target; 19333, the low made Wednesday, continues to be immediate support.

 

Nifty crossed 19620 and surged all the way to 19675 before closing at 19653.

 

20-DMA, placed around 19800, is the next upside target as well as resistance to eye; On the way down, 19550-19500 is the immediate support zone on the hourly chart, below which, 19333, the low made during the week, which roughly coincided with 20-week moving average, would be the important support to eye.

 

For Banknifty, 44600 is the immediate hurdle on the hourly chart, upon crossover of which, 45000, around which 20-DMA is placed, would be the next upside target. On the way down, 43857, the low made during the week, around which a trendline adjoining bottoms made in June and August is placed, is the immediate support.

Investment in securities market is subject to market risk.

Please check https://www.prudentbroking.com/Disclaimert.aspx for detailed disclaimer.