Tuesday, July 1, 2014

PRUDENT MORNING MANTRA - 01.07.2014

NIFTY BREAKS OUT OF DESCENDING CHANNEL; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 7550

WORLD MARKETS

US indices ended mixed with modest changes yesterday.

Existing home sales surged 6.1% in May, marking the largest monthly gain since April 2010. Chicago PMI for June however came in at 62.6, down from the prior month's reading of 65.5.

Gold rose half a percent to $1327 an ounce; Nymex crude fell 0.33% to $105.4 a barrel.

European markets too ended mixed with marginal changes. Euro zone inflation came in at 0.5% y-o-y in June, unchanged from May.

Today morning, Ukrainian president has ended the unilateral ceasefire with pro-Russian rebels in the eastern part of the country. The parties had implemented a ceasefire on June 20 but the president said the rebels had violated the truce several times.

AT HOME

Benchmark indices extended the upmove after the gap up opening to end with hefty gains of a percent and quarter. Sensex surged 314 points to settle at 25414 while Nifty finished at 7611, up 102 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.8% each. All the BSE sectoral indices ended higher with Power and Capital Goods indices leading the tally, putting on 2.9% and 2.2% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks worth Rs 1288 cr but net sold index futures and stock futures worth Rs 324 cr and 141 cr respectively. DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 181 cr.

Rupee depreciated 9 paise to close at 60.17/$.

India's core sector growth for May slowed to 2.3% from 4.2% in April 2014 and 5.9% in May 2013.

India’s fiscal deficit in the first two months of the fiscal year (April-May) touched 45.6% of the full-year target of Rs.5.3 trillion, a six-year high, because of high non-Plan expenditure and low revenue receipts.

Oil marketing companies yesterday hiked petrol and diesel prices by Rs 1.69 and 50 paise respectively.

For the month of June, Sensex and Nifty gained 5% and 5.3% respectively.

OUTLOOK

China's HSBC final manufacturing PMI for June has come in at 50.7, which is up from 49.4 in May but in-line with the flash reading of 50.8.

Nikkei is up more than a percent but other Asian markets are trading mixed with modest changes. SGX Nifty is suggesting about 10 points higher start for our market.

For past couple of sessions we had been mentioning that Nifty was in a consolidation mode within a descending channel, the upper level of which was placed around 7610.

Yesterday, the benchmark surged 102 points to settle at 7611, just crossing the 7610 hurdle. By closing above the immediate previous top of 7593, Nifty has also regained a higher-top higher-bottom formation on the daily chart.

7700, the all-time high made last month, is the immediate target on the way up, above which 7800-7850 would be the next target zone.

Traders are advised to hold on to trading longs with the stop loss of 7550, which is the nearest support on the hourly chart.


Auto companies will report their June sales figures starting today.

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