Monday, August 18, 2014

PRUDENT MORNING MANTRA - 18.08.2014

HIGHEST WEEKLY CLOSE FOR NIFTY; STAY LONG WITH THE STOP LOSS OF 7675

WORLD MARKETS

After rising about four tenth of a percent on Thursday, US indices ended mixed on Friday, with Dow losing 0.3%, S & P closing flat and Nasdaq gaining 0.3%.

Economic data was mixed. The Producer Price Index rose 0.1% in July, in line with expectations.The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell in August. Industrial Production rose 0.4%, with the highest rate of utilization since June 2006. Consumer sentiment was a disappointing 79.2, the lowest since November last year.

Geopolitical concerns were back after media reports suggested that the Ukrainian artillery destroyed a "significant" part of a Russian armored column that crossed into Ukraine. Russia, meanwhile, accused Ukraine of attempting to disrupt its humanitarian aid mission to eastern Ukraine and called for a ceasefire in the region to allow for the deliveries.

European markets, except a flat FTSE, ended lower, with cuts ranging from 0.3%-1.4% with DAX leading the tally.

Nymex crude rose $1.8 to close at $97.4; Gold lost $9.5 to $1306.

For the week, US indices gained between 0.7%-2.2% and European markets were up 0.6%-1.8%.

The White House on Sunday said President Barack Obama had authorized U.S. air strikes in Iraq to help retake control of the Mosul Dam and that the action was consistent with his goal of protecting U.S. citizens in that country.
                                                             
AT HOME

Benchmark indices, after a positive start, saw a gradual upmove through the session to end higher by about seven tenth of a percent, extending the rising streak to fourth straight day. Sensex climbed 184 points to settle at 26103 while Nifty finished at 7792, up 52 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 1.2% each. Except a marginal cut in BSE IT and Teck indices, all other sectoral indices ended higher with Consumer Durable and Metal indices leading the tally, gaining 2.1% and 1.9% respectively.

India's WPI for July came in at a 5-month low of 5.19%, easing from 5.43% in June. The figure for May however, was revised upward to 6.18% from 6.01%.

FIIs net bought stocks, index futures and stock futures worth Rs 625 cr, 605 cr and 326 cr respectively. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 136 cr.

Rupee appreciated 46 paise to close at 60.76/$.

After two months of double-digit growth, India's exports expanded at a slower 7.3% to $27.7 billion in July. Imports rose 4.3% to $40 bn, leaving the trade deficit at $12.2 bn, against $11.8 bn in May.

For the week, Sensex and Nifty gained 3% each with Nifty registering its highest weekly close ever.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with modest cuts and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 20 points lower opening for our market.

Ever since Nifty crossed 7690 hurdle on Tuesday, we have been working with the target of 7840. The benchmark rose to 7797 through the rest of the week and finally settled at 7792.

7840 continues to be the immediate target above which 7880, where the trendline adjoining recent tops on the daily chart is placed, would be the next hurdle to eye.

Immediate support on the hourly chart has moved up to 7675, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to.

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