Friday, August 22, 2014

PRUDENT MORNING MANTRA - 22.08.2014

S & P 500 HITS RECORD HIGH ON ENCOURAGING DATA; JACKSON HOLE IN FOCUS

WORLD MARKETS

Dow and S & P 500 gained about three tenth of a percent with the later scaling a fresh all-time high on upbeat economic data on housing, jobs and factory activity. Nasdaq closed flat.

Jobless claims declined by 14,000 last week to 298,000, better than expected. Existing home sales in July hit fastest pace in nearly a year at 5.15 mn units. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index rose 0.9% last month. Preliminary reading of manufacturing activity in August came in at 58 as against the estimated 56.1 figure. And lastly the Philadelphia Fed's business activity index jumped to 28.0 in August from 23.9 the month before.

European markets gained between 0.3%-1.6% despite some disappointing data from the euro zone, as investors focused on central bank monetary policy. Euozone flash manufacturing PMI for August came in at a 13-month low of 50.8, down from 51.8 in July. The services PMI came in at 53.5, down from 54.2 in July. Germany’s PMIs actually surprised to the upside, although they slipped from July. The story was more mixed in France, where the services PMI climbed to a five-month high, but the manufacturing PMI tanked to a 15-month low.

Gold tumbled $20 to $1275 an ounce, marking a two-month low. Nymex crude rose 51 cents to $94 a barrel.
                                                             
AT HOME

Benchmark indices ended modestly higher after a choppy trade, extending the consolidation to third day. Sensex gained 46 points to settle at 26360 while Nifty finished at 7891, up 16 points. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed yet again, rising 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. BSE Consumer Durable index climbed 3.8%, becoming top gainer among the sectoral indices, followed by 1.2% rise in Bankex. Realty and Metal indices were the top losers, down 1.9% and 1.4% respectively.

FIIs net bought stocks and stock futures worth Rs 413 cr and 675 cr but net sold index futures worth Rs 158 cr. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 64 cr.

Rupee depreciated 6 paise to close at 60.67/$.

OUTLOOK

Today morning Asian markets are trading with modest gains and SGX Nifty is suggesting about 15 points higher opening for our market.

After climbing nearly 400 points in 6-sessions, Nifty is in a consolidation mode for past three sessions, which should be considered a healthy scenario. Immediate support on the hourly chart continues to be placed at 7795, with the stop loss of which trading longs should be held on to. On the way up, the upward sloping trendline adjoining recent tops on the daily chart is placed around 7990, which would be the immediate target.

Markets across the globe would be watching out for the central bankers gathering in Jackson Hole starting today. US Fed chair Yellen is expected to sound a dovish tone when she talks about the labor market. ECB President Draghi on the other hand may allude to need for a quantitative easing for the eurozone given the weak economic data and lack of inflation in the eurozone.

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